A COMPARATIVE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE REALIGNMENTS WITH RUSSIA (2002–2025)

Аннотация

Despite extensive research on the geopolitical effects of Western sanctions against Russia, a systematic multi‑region comparison explaining the divergent trade responses across the Asia‑Pacific remains absent. This study addresses that gap by examining trade realignments of South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania with Russia from 2002 to 2025. Using a neoclassical realist framework and comparative case design, it analyses IMF trade data across pre‑sanctions (2002–2013) and post‑sanctions (2014–2025) periods, focusing on strategic culture, elite threat perception, and domestic interest groups as intervening variables. The findings show that trade volume with Russia serves as a proxy for geopolitical alignment: India’s cumulative trade surged by 395 percent, China’s by 207 percent, ASEAN’s by 108 percent, while Oceania experienced near‑complete decoupling, and Japan and South Korea exhibited a delayed post‑2022 contraction. Systemic sanctions pressure is thus mediated by domestic factors – non‑aligned strategic cultures and strong pro‑Russia interest groups drive expansion, whereas alliance dependency and weak lobbies produce decoupling. The study contributes a replicable, data‑driven framework demonstrating how secondary states navigate great‑power rivalry through divergent commercial outcomes, refining the strategic autonomy thesis with empirical evidence.